中國可再生能源發展現狀與展望——《國際清潔能源產業發展報告（2018）》

中国可再生能源发展现状与展望

郑雅楠 郭喆宇 王心楠 胡兆光

摘要：面对国际应对气候变化的责任和国内经济转型发展的要求，中国正在建设清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系，其中发展可再生能源已成为其中的关键。“十二五”以来，中国的可再生能源一直保持高速增长，技术路线和产业模式创新不断加快，风、光装机规模和发电量屡创新高，持续推动能源结构的调整和优化，但也面临着一定弃电、限电的挑战，同时中国的风、光等可再生能源还具有较大的发展潜力，但也必须面对来自需求、技术、政策等众多的复杂不确定性，如何看待中国当前可再生能源的发展形势和分析其未来发展趋势，尚需进行系统的研究。本文将首先总结当前中国可再生能源的发展现状，然后聚焦可再生能源发电领域，重点研究影响其发展的主要不确定性因素，最后利用构建的考虑未来复杂不确定性的综合资源战略规划模型，从大数据视角定量研究2018-2030年中国风电、太阳能发电和生物质发电的各种可能发展趋势，分析风、光补贴加速退坡带来的影响。

关键词：可再生能源； 综合资源战略规划； 复杂不确定性分析； 补贴退坡

作者简介：郑雅楠，博士，国际清洁能源论坛 (澳门) 理事，国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所副研究员，华北电力大学硕导。郭喆宇，硕士，华北电力大学。王心楠，硕士，德国国际合作机构技术顾问。胡兆光，博士，国网能源研究院教授级高工。

China Renewable Energy Development Status and Outlook

Abstract: To take on the responsibility of global climate change and meet the requirements of domestic economic development, China is establishing a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, for which the development of renewable resources has become the key. Since the 12th Five-Year period, renewable energy has maintained rapid growth in China. The technological roadmap and industrial model are continuously evolving. The capacity and generation of wind and solar power have continuously increased to higher levels, promoting the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure. However, electricity limits remain a challenge. Wind, solar and other renewable energy sources still have much growth potential, but face uncertainties regarding demand, technology and policy. It is necessary to perform a systematic analysis before summarizing the status quo and predicting the future developments of China’s renewable resources. This paper first summarizes the current situation of China’s renewable energy, and then focuses on the renewable energy sector, studying major causes for the uncertainty in its development. Finally, the paper uses an uncertainty analysis model for integrated resource strategic planning to conduct a quantitative study using a large amount of data on the future development trend of China’s wind, solar and biomass power and the influence of subsidy reduction for wind and solar power.

Keywords: renewable energy; integrated resource strategic planning; uncertainty analysis for complex models; subsidy phase out