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我國遠景年單位GDP能耗和人均用電量趨勢研判——《國際清潔能源產業發展報告(2018)》

我国远景年单位GDP能耗和人均用电量趋势研判

陈晖

摘要:我国清洁能源发展潜力与未来能源系统发展趋势密切相关,单位GDP能耗和人均用电量作为能源系统关键指标,可揭示未来我国可再生能源发展的规模上限,进而协助制定电力规划和能源发展战略。本文采用逐层递进式的聚类分析法改进传统的对标分析法,以全球国家和地区为样本,结合单位GDP能耗、人均用电量的关键影响因素研判其发展趋势,预计我国未来进入发达经济阶段后,单位GDP能耗和人均用电量将接近德国这一类发达国家的水平。其中,我国单位GDP能耗将有望达到4MJ/国际元左右,较2015年水平下降约40%;我国人均用电量还有近半的成长空间,达到饱和状态后其值约为7000—8000千瓦时/人。应用以上结论对南方五省区进行实例测算,发现五省区远景年的能源自给率约为40%—43%,届时约1.1万亿千瓦时的电力缺额需要五省区本地火力发电和外购电力共同填补。

关键词:中国;单位GDP能耗;人均用电量;南方五省区;能源自给率

作者简介:陈晖,北大博士,清华博士后,南方电网能源发展研究院研究员,主要从事能源战略和政策、能源系统建模研究。

Forecasting of China’s Per Unit Energy Consumption and Per Capita Electricity Consumption in the Long Term

Abstract : The growth potential of clean energy in China relies on the development of the energy system. As the core indicators of an energy system, per unit GDP energy consumption and per capita electricity consumption determine the upper limit of the clean energy scale, and assist in forming energy plans and development strategies. In this paper, to improve the traditional benchmarking method, a progressive cluster analysis method is employed for studying all countries and regions, from which key influence factors and development trends of per unit GDP energy consumption as well as per capita electricity consumption are revealed. This paper explains that China’s development trend will be similar to that of Germany, in that China’s per unit GDP energy consumption will drop to 4 MJ/$2011 PPP GDP, nearly sixty percent of its level in 2015. Additionally, China’s per capita electricity consumption will be saturated with the value between 7,000 and 8,000 kWh. Based on these results, the energy self-sufficiency rate of five southern provinces is predicted to be between 40% and 43% in the long term, when a significant electricity shortage will need to be supplemented through local thermal power or purchased electricity.

Key Words: China; Per capita electricity consumption; saturation value; five southern provinces; energy self-sufficiency rate

2019-04-18
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