綜合經濟可行性、市場趨勢、技術與補貼政策之風能發展策略分析 ——《粵港澳大灣區綠色發展報告（2020）》

綜合經濟可行性、市場趨勢、技術與補貼政策之風能發展策略分析

Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet 周碩彥

 

摘要:

近數十餘年來，由於風力發電技術的大幅進步，促進了風能應用的發展，滿足了未來能源供應和環境保護的要求。為了提高風能裝機容量，必須依據經濟可行性、技術發展、市場潛力和政策環境等徹底分析風能發展。近期雖已有大量的研究分析風能的發展，然而考慮到各類具影響性參數的效果之研究仍然較少。特別是針對細部維修策略優化下的經濟可行性、政府補貼政策、能源市場潛力以及風機技術發展的綜合影響之研究更是有限。近期粵港澳大灣區有關擴大風能系統的政策浮現後，使得大灣區風能發展潛力也因而得到重點關注。本研究提出了一個考慮經濟可行性、風機技術發展、全球風能局勢、市場潛力與投資，以及政策環境來評估風能發展的模式。因為風力發電系統的維修成本為主要的成本，為了提高準確性和改善經濟評估的不確定性，本研究提出了一個決定風力系統最佳維修時程的方法，以便有效地降低維修成本。本研究將有助於有效地理解與風能相關的問題以及維修的優化，並可為研究人員和風能領域的專業人員提供經濟分析的一個參考模式。

關鍵字:

風能；風機技術；維修優化；經濟可行性；市場潛力；補貼政策

作者簡介：

Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet，博士，臺灣科技大學工業管理系博士後研究員，物聯網創新中心研究員。

周碩彥，博士，臺灣科技大學特聘教授兼物聯網創新中心主任，兼任成功大學能源技術與策略研究中心特聘研究教授。

 

Analysis of Wind Energy Development Based on Economic Feasibility, Market Trend, Technology and Subsidy Policies

Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet, Zhou Shuoyan

 

Abstract: In recent decades, advantageous achievements of technology have promoted the expansion of wind energy for meeting future energy supply needs and ensuring environmental protection. To increase the installation capacity of wind energy, it is necessary to analyze comprehensively wind energy development based on economic feasibility, technology development, market potential and policy landscape. A huge number of studies have emerged recently to analyze the development of wind energy. However, the studies considering the effects of various influential parameters remain small and limited, especially those that consider thoughtfully the impacts of maintenance strategy optimization on economic feasibility, government subsidies, market potential, and wind turbine technology development. This study proposes approach to evaluate the development of wind energy considering economic feasibility, wind turbine technology development, global scenario of wind energy, market potential and investment, and policy landscape. The adoption and potential of wind energy in the Greater Bay Area (Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao) are focused, because of the recent policies and interests for expanding the utilization of wind system in this area. To increase the accuracy and to deal with the uncertainty of economic evaluation, this study also proposes an approach to determine the optimal maintenance schedule for wind system, such that maintenance cost is minimized. This study contributes to better understanding of the problems related to wind energy sources, maintenance optimization, and provides useful information for the researchers as well as the professionals in the wind energy field.

Key Words: Wind Energy; Wind Turbine Technology; Maintenance Optimization; Economic Feasibility; Market Potential; Energy Policy